用户infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/jujiao.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>聚焦

一口气挂了3套房，降价15万也没卖掉，房东：原来infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/xinwen.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>新闻说的是infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhen.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>真的

楼市传出的某些消息可能会带有有误导性的，比如可能infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/wangluo.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>网络上的房价和现实中根本不一样，对于购房者来说，不亲身实践，可能很难相信房价上涨或是下跌会是事实。

你会相信现在房价已经走入了下跌的通道了吗？相信问身边的10个人，会有起码8个人不相信这句话。房价下跌？说的好像有点异想天开，毕竟涨了那么多年，infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/jiage.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>价格一年比一年高，什么时候跌过呢？然而楼市调控是infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhen.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>真的，市场空置房过多也是infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhen.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>真的，如今的楼市，可能在未来infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhen.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>真的要变天了。

inline="0" src="htinfotextkey>TP://p1.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PStainfotextkey>TP.com/linfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARge/dfinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/ic.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ic-imagehandler/d6aainfotextkey>DC17-e47d-4225-b7e4-f4263adb2963" />

 

一个三线城市的房东手里有5套房子，是自己早年间拆迁之后拿的。房东看了不少infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/xinwen.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>新闻，觉得楼市可能要变天了，于是打算把房子卖掉。她把手里的3套房子都挂了出去，没有多久，就有人相继来看房。但是后来都没有成交，按照房东的分析，是现在市面上房子多了，自己所在小区的业主有不少都是卖房的，所以购房者选择多了，infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/jiage.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>价格太高人家自然不买。后来降来降去，房东降价了15万，加送一个车库也没能把最后一套房卖掉。房东表示：亲身经历过了才知道楼市确实变天了，原来infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/xinwen.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>新闻说的都是infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhen.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>真的。

很多现象表示，如今的房子确实不好卖。去年年底，不少中介上门推销房子，说自己房子多好多好，再不买就要涨价了。购房者不是傻子，知道人家既然上门推销了，房子自然不好出售所以才这样推销。于是，理性的购房者这个时候并不会轻易购买infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/ershou.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>二手房，因为比起infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/ershou.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>二手房，他们更加喜欢infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/xinfang.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>新房。

inline="0" src="htinfotextkey>TP://p1.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PStainfotextkey>TP.com/linfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARge/dfinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/ic.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ic-imagehandler/92c5d64f-8047-4a71-867c-c59e3101a90f" />

 

不买infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/ershou.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>二手房的原因有很多，一个是infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/ershou.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>二手房比较贵，但是却是infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/ershou.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>二手的。一个原因是购房者如今对炒房客恨之透顶，因此不愿意接盘炒房客的房子。作为一个理性的购房者，应当对楼市有个自己的判断。遇到不错的房子可以买，但是遇到炒房客的房子，笔者也劝大家不要轻易购房，因为赚的还是炒房客，无论他们降价多少。

来源：infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget="_blank">驻家金陵

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infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/redian.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>热点追踪

infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhongguo.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>中国infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/sheke.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>社科院：疫后核心城市房价稳中略升，超过去年最高值

根据infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/sheke.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>社科院infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/cinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AI.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>AIjing.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>财经战略研究院发布的《infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhongguo.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>中国住房市场月度发展infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/fenxibaogao.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>分析报告》，3月份，全国24个核心城市综合房价超过2020年春节前的水平，同时也高于2019年全年最高房价，但是要低于infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/2018nian.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>2018年中的房价水平。衡量核心城市房价变化的纬房核心指数报106.24点，较今年1月上涨0.46%，比2019年最高值上涨0.12%。

分城市看，今年一季度，一线城市房价累计上涨1.47%。其中，深圳房价累计上涨4.07%，涨速相对较快，北京累计上涨0.83%，infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/shanghai.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>上海累计上涨1.51%，infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/guangzhou.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>广州则累计下跌1.23%。

inline="0" src="htinfotextkey>TP://p1.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PStainfotextkey>TP.com/linfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARge/dfinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/ic.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ic-imagehandler/babf7cfa-743c-4165-adbc-09f18af78cef" />

 

其他城市方面，报告指出，1-3月份，二线城市房价累计上涨0.59%，三线城市累计上涨0.75%，四线城市累计上涨0.28%。

报告认为，近期深圳房价较快上涨属于结构性上涨，并未出现区域性的房地产热。如果没有严厉的管控措施，深圳房价结构性上涨很可能扩展成全面上涨，并传导至其它一、二线城市。

“但是，如果未来宏观infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/jingji.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>经济infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/huanjing.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>环境没有及时复苏或进一步变差，一二线城市房价即便进一步上涨也难以持续，少部分infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/jingji.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>经济基本面受疫情冲击较严重的三四线城市房价也可能出现较快下跌。”报告称。

报告指出，疫情对住房infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/xiaofei.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>消费需求的负向影响，以及相对宽松货币infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/huanjing.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>环境对住房需求及房价预期的正向影响，均是影响短期房价的主要因素。

inline="0" src="htinfotextkey>TP://p3.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PStainfotextkey>TP.com/linfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARge/dfinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/ic.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ic-imagehandler/fe284cc2-b7a3-4d54-b6ea-502f56635897" />

 

“由于影响因素的区域不平衡性，在疫情不突然消失的条件下，部分城市疫情对楼市的负向影响总体将超过宽松货币infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/huanjing.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>环境对楼市的正向影响。而另一些城市，形势则可能相反。表现在房infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/jiage.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>价格局上，则是市场冷热不匀，涨跌互现。”报告称。

在infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhengce.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>政策方面，infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/sheke.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>社科院建议，进一步完善一线城市及其周边卫星城市的住房infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/touzi.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>投资投机管控措施，因地制宜增加限售条款及新入籍购房者社保缴纳条件；加强信贷资金用途管控，严禁各类infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/xiaofei.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>消费infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/daikuan.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>贷款、非房地产infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/qiye.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>企业经营infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/daikuan.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>贷款流入房地产市场；及时有效降低居民家庭短期还款负担，临时性对存量房贷利率进行向下重新定价，同时辅以临时性推迟本金还款或修改本金还款方案等措施。

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楼市观点

楼市现状：3.5亿套房子，75.9%房贷负债&hellinfotextkey>ip;&hellinfotextkey>ip;

最近市场上热传着两篇房地产报告，一篇是《新居住infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/yanjiubaogao.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>研究报告》，另一篇为《2019年infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhongguo.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>中国城镇居民家庭资产负债情况调查》。这两篇报告从宏微观角度展现了，当下我国房地产市场的发展现状，处于infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/lishi.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>历史哪个阶段，接下来的趋势如何，还有房地产在国民infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/jingji.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>经济中的地位。这些infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/xinxi.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>信息对当下购房者，有很深刻的参考价值。

inline="0" src="htinfotextkey>TP://p1.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PStainfotextkey>TP.com/linfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARge/dfinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/ic.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ic-imagehandler/eced2d58-895a-4127-a2f4-6infotextkey>2659c2373e8" />

 

01 过剩的房子

2019年，infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhongguo.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>中国人均GDP突破1万美元大关，城镇家庭人均年度可支配收入超6000美元，折合infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/renmin.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>人民币42infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/48.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>487.8元。infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhongguo.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>中国城镇化率超60%，城镇住宅存量超3.5亿套，家庭户均住宅1.2套，人均居住面积超过40平米。

这些数据是什么意思呢？逐个解剖一下。

首先人均GDP“1万美元”这个数字很有讲究。它是一个国家发展从中等发展infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhongguo.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>中国家跨入发达国家的一道门槛，也是我们常说的“中等收入陷阱”。按照infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhongguo.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>中国当前infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/shehinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/ui.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>ui.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>社会整体运infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/xingqing.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>行情况，并没有出现陷阱中的负面现象。而且前段时间，21世纪infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/jingji.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>经济研究院还统计，infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhongguo.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>中国已经有14个城市人均GDP破2万美元，达到发达国家水平。这些数据都意味着infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhongguo.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>中国跨过了陷阱，在向发达国家迈进。我们还是非常幸运的。

infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhongguo.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>中国城镇化率超60%，城镇住宅存量超3.5亿套，家庭户均住宅1.2套，人均居住面积超过40平米。

单纯从城镇化率角度看，infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhongguo.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>中国房地产建设还有非常大的增长空间。但是我们的城镇住宅存量房已经超过3.5亿套，平均一个家庭拥有1.2套住房，这个数值已经超越世界上绝大多数发达国家标准。

要知道，美国住户总体的住房拥有率为63.7%，低于我国32.3个百分点。按家庭收入从低到高排序，美国收入最低20%家庭的住房拥有率仅为32.9%，而我国收入最低20%家庭的住房拥有率已经达到了89.1%。

inline="0" src="htinfotextkey>TP://p3.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PStainfotextkey>TP.com/linfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARge/dfinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/ic.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ic-imagehandler/14cfd70d-45c6-4279-ainfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/115.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>115-bd9c86871c40" />

 

而且第二份报告中也有这么一项数据，我国城镇居民家庭有一套住房的家庭占比是58.4%，有两套住房的占比为31%，有三套及以上住房的占比是10.5%。这意味着，我国房子的总体供应量已经全面“过剩”了，这还是在城镇化率60%的基础上，如果未来达到80%，按照某些专家所讲，有2亿infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/nongmin.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>农民进城购房，按照现在的增长率，房子绝对是够用的。

02 人口&mDASh;&mDASh;流动的漏斗

2019年我国人口的主要流动趋势是向浙江、infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/guangdong.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>广东流入。浙江的背后是infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/changsanjiao.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>长三角，infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/guangdong.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>广东的背后是粤港澳infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/dawanqu.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>大湾区。这两个超级infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/dushi.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>都市圈是目前infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhongguo.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>中国最强的两个infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/jingji.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>经济支柱。如果分城市来讲，人口流动趋势，除了向两大infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/dushi.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>都市圈流动以外，剩下的就是向16个中小型infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/dushi.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>都市圈的核心城市流动。

人们对「优质资源」的追逐表现在infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/lishi.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>历史的任何一个阶段。所谓优质资源，最吸引人的资源是薪资岗位，其次是infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/jiaoyu.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>教育、infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/yiliao.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>医疗配套设施，最后是气候、空气等infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/huanjing.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>环境因素。而且近几年在高铁、飞机的助力下，人口的流动趋势更加明显了。这几年还有一个现象。县城居民对infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/jiaoyu.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>教育的投入简直疯狂，凡是有些储蓄的，都愿意挤破脑袋选择在附近的“大城市”买房，然后让孩子享受更高阶的infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/jiaoyu.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>教育。这种渴望“阶级跃迁”的infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/shehinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/ui.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>ui.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>社会现象，愈来愈盛。

那么以此人口流动趋势，infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhongguo.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>中国房地产市场迎来巨大分化。

流入人口多的城市，房子还是不够用的，例如像最近房价疯涨的深圳，房子稀缺，信贷口子一开，购房者排队入场。流入人口少，或者是纯流出的城市，房子过剩现象加重，房价会长期横盘阴跌。典型如鹤岗这类单一infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/chanye.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>产业的城市，重工业一垮塌，年轻人如洪水般外流，房价6万一套比比皆是。

如果你现在所在的infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/difang.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>地方平均工资低，又不在infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/dushi.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>都市圈中，也不是什么省会城市，我劝你，尽早把手上多余的房子出手。

inline="0" src="htinfotextkey>TP://p3.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PStainfotextkey>TP.com/linfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARge/dfinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/ic.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ic-imagehandler/d774fb04-47c2-4bfd-9073-28eadde44e9f" />

 

03 房贷压力有点儿重

第一，城镇居民家庭户均总资产317.9万元，资产分布分化明显；家庭资产以实物资产为主，住房占比近七成；

第二，家庭负债结构相对单一，负债来源以infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/yinxing.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>银行infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/daikuan.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>贷款为主，房贷是家庭负债的主要构成，占家庭总负债的75.9%。

第三，城镇居民家庭资产负债率为9.1%，总体稳健，少数家庭资不抵债；居民家庭债务收入比为1.02，略高于美国居民水平（0.93）；偿债能力总体较强，偿债收入比为18.4%，居民家庭债务风险总体可控。

第四，部分家庭债务风险相对较高：部分低资产家庭资不抵债，违约风险高；中青年群体负债压力大，债务风险较高；刚需型房贷家庭的债务风险突出。

通过以上4条数据，我们看出，我国国民infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/caifu.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>财富主要承载就是房子，占总体infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/caifu.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>财富7成，而且家庭的债务绝大部分来自于房贷。这也就解释了我国房价，为什么一直呈现“易涨难跌”的怪象。

因为房价一涨，所有人都很开心，即使房子无法兑现现金，大家也可以活在甜美的童话infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/gushi.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>故事里。但房价只要一跌，就哀声载道，所有人都谈家庭infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/caifu.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>财富缩水，连出门infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/xiaofei.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>消费的欲望都减退了。

inline="0" src="htinfotextkey>TP://p1.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PStainfotextkey>TP.com/linfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARge/pgc-image/d1227bb7c4ef4e59be7a3b4121a4e0ed" />

 

居民家庭负债收入比是1.02，其实并不低，而且从之前的报告中得知，2019年的居民家庭房贷收入比（个人住房infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/daikuan.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>贷款余额/可支配收入）为47.4%。意味着全家人起码要拿近一半的收入，去还房贷。

这时候就考验家庭的收入稳定性了。在疫情影响下，infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/qiye.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>企业生存艰难，失业率已经达到了20%。居民infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/daikuan.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>贷款延期交款比率在2-3月出现了明显上升。

这也解释了为什么此阶段，即使infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/jingji.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>经济如何承重，当局都拒绝启动房地产的原因。因为infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/jingji.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>经济还可以通过货币infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhengce.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>政策刺激，但如果居民不顾风险，跑去炒房了，很可能引发系统性风险，这个大盘绝对是不能动的。所以现阶段只要有城市敢降低首付比例玩杠杆，均被严令约谈。

05 好的开始

从上面的数据infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/xinxi.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>信息，我们可以总结：

1、infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhongguo.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>中国房子整体供应过剩，但核心城市的房子还是稀缺品。而且核心城市的居住需求在向改善、置换转移。

2、国民家庭资产主要沉淀在房子里，房价易涨难跌，刚需越多的城市房价越坚韧。

3、家庭负债居高不下，而且疫情影响下，偿贷违约率在上升。当局此阶段不会轻易启动房地产，尤其是infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/PS.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>PS://www.169zx.com/tag/jingji.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML tinfotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/AR.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>ARget=_blank class=infotextkey>经济面较差的城市。

可以看得出来，2019年是上一轮房价周期的终点。高杠杆下，能级越低的城市需求空间透支的越厉害。

所以在未来，类似于2015年那种依靠货币化棚改，强行去库存炒作楼市，引发房价大涨的可能性，微乎其微。

未来房子的升值，更多会表现在城市居民的整体infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/caifu.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>财富和收入上。而且目前我国房地产市场，已经从“高速发展期”进入“成熟期”。人们对房地产的infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/touzi.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>投资需求开始放缓，对居住品质的需求在infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/jiasu.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>加速提升。无论是infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/jianzhu.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>建筑品质、infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/zhuangxiu.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>装修，还是物业、中介infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/fuwu.infotextkey>TPs://www.169zx.com/tag/HTinfotextkey>TPS.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTinfotextkey>TPS://www.169zx.com/tag/HTML.html target=_blank class=infotextkey>HTML target=_blank class=infotextkey>服务等等。